Inside Donald Trump’s victory are thousands of small shifts in how Americans voted.
Nationwide, 85.2% of counties voted for Trump. And comparing how each county voted from the 2020 election to 2024, the median vote margin in the country shifted to the right 3.2 percentage points. Key here is that Trump built on his 2020 performance — even in counties he lost — while Vice President Kamala Harris struggled to match President Joe Biden’s 2020 numbers, underperforming in 3 of every 4 counties.
This resulted in a reshaping of the electoral map across demographic lines, according to an NBC News analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data and election results.
The analysis found:
- Asian American communities saw significant rightward shifts — in the Northeast and West, average margins shifted 6.4 and 6 points, respectively. Trump made inroads in the Northeast, growing his vote total by 7%. But the shift owes largely to Harris’ underperformance in both regions.
- The rightward shift of Black voters in the South also exceeded the nation as a whole — and Harris broadly underperformed Biden’s performance in counties with large Black populations.
- Areas with high concentrations of high school graduates saw some of the steepest Democratic declines.
NBC News looked at several demographic groups and which counties have the largest percentage of a particular group living there, as of the latest Census Bureau survey, which publishes estimates for 2018 to 2022 — specifically, the roughly 300 counties in the top 10% of each group. For example, Hinds County in Mississippi has one of the highest concentrations of Black people in the country, while Alameda County, California, with Asian Americans making up 32% of its population, has one of the highest concentrations of that racial group.
Experts point to turnout and dissatisfaction with the economy as the driving forces behind the results. However, shifts in voting patterns among certain demographics — while they shouldn’t be considered the focal point — are also visible, said Ken Kollman, a political science professor at the University of Michigan.
“The main story is the relatively low levels of turnout for Harris in key Democratic places compared to Biden in 2020,” Kollman said. “It’s a turnout story.”
Kollman pointed out exit polls showing a shift among Hispanic men, and added that Black men may have either voted more for Trump or not turned out for Harris.
Asian American voters in both the Northeast and the West shifted toward Trump, with experts suggesting that the economy was a priority for the electorate.
In California, Merced County — with one of the highest Asian American populations in the country — went for Trump, despite its voters throwing their collective weight behind Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020.
A major driver of Merced’s 17-point shift rightward was a smaller vote total for Harris, who received 28% fewer votes than Biden did in 2020. Meanwhile Trump improved slightly on his 2020 performance.
Riverside, another California county where Asian Americans have strong representation, also flipped for the GOP in a photo-finish race decided by a few thousand votes.
However, the math in Riverside looked different from in Merced. Both candidates grew their vote totals compared to the previous election cycle. But while Harris’ vote count grew 21%, it was no match for Trump’s nearly 50% improvement.
When it came to education, Trump improved his margin in counties with significant populations of both high school diploma-holders and advanced degree recipients more than the national median.
However, the driving forces behind each tended to diverge. Across counties where high school graduates were strongly represented, Trump’s vote totals held steady while Harris underperformed, losing a larger share of Biden’s 2020 coalition than any other educational category.
But in counties with the largest share of advanced degree holders, Trump actually gained votes while Harris shed them.
One example of this is Nassau County, New York, which voted Republican for the first time in over three decades. Densely populated with high earners and advanced degree holders, Nassau’s voters hadn’t backed a Republican for president since George H.W. Bush in 1988.
While Trump grew his vote count 11%, his victory also owed to Harris shedding 16% of Biden’s 2020 vote count.
Meanwhile, inflation pressures, among other financial woes, also shaped voters’ decisions. In counties with high costs for child care and housing, the electorate also swung toward Trump.
See the data used in the full analysis below and how margins shifted across demographic groups: